Since the cancellation of the nuclear deal with Iran, the trend of US President Donald Trump is not going to soften.
The Trump Administration is showing commitment to isolate Iran completely from the global system. The impact of this attitude of the United States has also affected the relations between Iran and Europe.
Many analysts think that Iran has been looking at China as a secret weapon in the event of a crisis. Iran thinks that it will compensate the loss of the West by investing sugar and selling it oil.
The trade war between the United States and China is believed to be in line with Iran’s cooperation with China. Although most analysts think Chinese support for Iran is nothing more than a fantasy.
It is being said that China can give some relaxation to Iran in sanctions, but she can not become her savior.
What will China do?
There is a continuous worsening situation in Iran. Iran’s currency riyal has reached the lowest level in history. In the unofficial market, instead of one dollar, you have to give 90 thousand riyals.
At the beginning of this year, Riyal’s price was less than half of the current time in comparison to the dollar.
For the first time in Iran last week, a large number of people came to the streets of Tehran against the government. There is nothing positive in Iran’s favor.
OPEC, the organization of oil exporting countries, decided to increase the oil production last week. Opec’s step was to support Trump. This step of OPEC is more troubling to Iran.
They are not in a position to increase the oil production due to the American stance and the infrastructure of Iran’s crumbling infrastructure. Iran will have no means of securing foreign exchange as it will not be able to export oil.
Why does not India come up with Iran openly?
Iran, in crisis, have to pay a dollar for 90 thousand riyals
Sports of Modi, Trump and Iran oil
The United States is pressurizing all the world’s oil importers not to buy oil from Iran. India is also involved in these countries.
In such a situation, the question arises that China, which is importing the most oil from Iran, will cooperate with it in the face of crisis. It is being said that there is a great debate in the United States on this question.
Because of the new sanctions of Iran on Iran, private sector of China will not be affected and this will be with Europe. On the other hand Iran has limited options.
There is no doubt that Iran can only get help from Chinese investment, exports and oil purchases.
Not even with Europe
When the United States ended the nuclear deal, Iran turned to Europe. Iran has tried to end this nuclear agreement, and under this, European Union officials encouraged their companies to continue trade and investment with Iran.
European governments have proposed several exemptions with Iran and also asked the US to allow their companies to do business with Iran.
Now Europe’s companies are not even listening. On the investment front, PSA Group decided to close down a joint venture with Iranian auto manufacturers.
On the oil front, France’s company ‘Total’ has said that unless there is any special exemption from the United States, it cancels the billions of dollars proposed with Iran.
Along with this, dozens of Europeans have decided to cancel their investment in this Islamic Republic.
It is true that there is strong link between Iran and China. When the nuclear deal with Iran was signed in 2015, then the Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to further increase the scope of the relationship.
Iran and China had drawn a new line of policies and relationships for the next 25 years. In both the countries, there was talk of raising bilateral trade by $ 10 billion in the next decade.
Now China also has the option to finish all the agreements.
Many analysts say that China’s investment does not depend on how much of Iran is being harmed from the West.
For example, Iran needs strong infrastructure as well as high-quality technology to extract oil and reduce production costs.
Iran does not have the technology and it can only get it through import. This technique is not available to anyone except Europe and America.
How much china are
According to a report by Blue, this technique is not even with China. It has been written in this report, “Like technology in the West, China’s technology is not effective in the exploration and production of oil. In such a situation, even if China gets together, Iran will not have any advantage. ”
Many experts believe that Chinese investment can not take shape in Iran. Most companies in China are interested in doing business in the US and dollar.
Meaning these companies are also not interested in Iran. In case of Iran, US restrictions apply to all firms.
If Chinese companies do business with Iran despite trade sanctions, then these companies will have problems in the US. The US ban on Iran is going to come into force on August 6.
This restriction will apply to all types of purchases and gold from business to US dollars. Chinese companies can not bypass these restrictions
Oil exports to Iran’s economy are like ‘life blood’ and Tehran currently does not see any option.
According to the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic, when the US banned Iran in 2010, its oil production dropped 40 million barrels every day.
This fall in 2013 was 2.5 million barrels per day. When the nuclear deal was signed, in 2016, there was an increase of 40 million barrels of oil production in Iran.
According to Bloomberg, the GDP of Iran also reached three percent to 12 percent.
Worry within Iran
At present, Iran is exporting about 27 lakh barrels of oil every day. According to the Financial Tribune, 38 percent of these oil sells Iran to companies in Europe.
If European companies did not support Iran, they would not be able to sell oil. By giving more oil to China, Iran can compensate it, but this is not so easy.
Many analysts say that China would also like to take advantage of Iran’s compulsion. China will not want to create diplomatic strife with the rest of the country for Iran.
If Iran’s oil exports fall, then its foreign exchange reserves will fall sharply. In such a situation, there will be no way out of the payment crisis for him.
Within Iran, people are coming out on the road with this crisis. Many people in Iran are finding that the present government looks miserable with the economy. Within Iran, people have started saying that if they are looking at China, then they will feel disappointed.
Iraq will become Iran?
The first Vice-President of Iran is considered a reformist leader. They have said that Iran should talk to the United States directly. Ishaq has said that Iran is going in a serious ‘economic war’ and its consequences would be very bad.
They have said that Iran can not take China and Russia out of this crisis. They say that the United States can only remove Iran from this crisis.
Armaan newspaper has written that Iran will be in more difficult days to come.
This newspaper has printed the statement of former Iranian envoy Ali Khurram in the UN, in which he said, “America has planned for Iran in the same way as the US overthrew Saddam Hussein’s government in Iraq. . The US did this work in Iraq at three levels and it is going to do the same in Iran. First, the ban will completely disrupt the import of oil and gas and ultimately the military will take action. “