By August last year, US President Donald Trump spoke in North Korea on the language of ‘Fire and Fury’. But in June this year, his sentence, his word-selection was overturned.
After meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong in Singapore, the American President said, “It is not necessary to decide tomorrow as our present.” The controversy of the past can not be changed in the future war. Has signed a joint agreement in which he has reiterated his unwavering commitment to complete nuclear disarmament in the Korean Peninsula. We have also agreed to a strong dialogue to implement it soon. ”
Photos of Donald Trump and Kim Jong, have certainly created some hopes on the world political platform. The graph of tension between the two countries has come down in a few months. But the question is, has this meeting eliminated all the fears that have exploded so far?
Kim Jong, will they hand over their nuclear weapons to America or destroy them?
Clearly, right disarmament?
US Secretary of State Mike Pompey has said that after showing disarmament from North Korea, economic restrictions on him will be removed. But will this unpredictable attitude really work in that direction?
Professor Vaijayanti Raghavan of Korean Studies at JNU does not make any difference.
Vaijayanthi says that when it comes to nuclear disarmament in international relations and security issues, it means that one-by-one nuclear weapons should be destroyed and one international agency should come and investigate it.
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According to them, “But as far as North Korea is concerned, I do not think nuclear disarmament will come into force in its strict form. This agreement has only recently talked about commitment and it can mean that the nuclear program It will not be forwarded and new missiles will not be tested. We should take this nuclear disarmament in limited sense. ”
US requirements will be fulfilled?
This agreement between Trump and Kim speaks of complete disarmament of the entire Korean Peninsula. Meaning, even if the US has nuclear submarines and weapons in South Korea, then they will also have to withdraw the USA.
But what will America expect of North Korea’s nuclear weapons and technology? Professor Muqtadar Khan in International University and University of Delaware of the University of Delaware says, “It may be that North Korea’s weapons give it to China, or give it to USA or Russia or to degrade it in a scientific way. . ”
North Korea had destroyed the tunnels present in the nuclear test site before meeting Trump.
Although Muqtadar Khan underlines the importance of the rare technique of making nuclear weapons. He explains that the most important part of nuclear technology is the promotion of uranium.
He says, “The purpose of the US will be to stop the plant which has 99% of uranium enrichment – which Iran has not been able to do yet – that means its centrifuges should be destroyed. This means that after ten years, if any new regime is coming to North Korea then they have to start from the beginning. This America wants. But will it be? Not at all. Nuclear weapons. North Korea will lose its sole power with Wane. America can not be trusted has been proven that. In the case of Iran that has nuclear breaking agreement. ”
Peach of Libya model
Not only is Iran, whose example Kim Jong will be in his mind. He must also have been thinking about Libya, which was mentioned earlier by the American National Security Adviser John Bolton, before this visit.
Talking about the American aspirations about North Korea, Bolton told a TV channel, “I think this is right. I think we are looking at the Libyan model, that is, to get rid of all the nuclear weapons, To be destroyed and taken to the Oak Ridge located in Tennessee, USA. ”
John Bolton was referring to an agreement on disarmament with the Libyan leader Col Muammar Gaddafi at the time of the Bush regime in 2003. But the hand that he started refreshed the memories of the fate of Libyan governor Col Muammar Gaddafi.
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In 2011, eight years after the agreement, Gaddafi faced a West-backed armed insurgency in his country. Gaddafi also responded with retaliation.
But ultimately this fight lost Gadhafi. Armed rebel fighters killed him on one of the streets.
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According to the BBC’s North American editor Mark Murdell, at that time, when Hillary Clinton was told of the death of Gaddafi, he said, ‘Vo’.
However Professor Muqtadar Khan says that the Libyan model that John Bolton was referring to in North Korea was misunderstood.
He explains, “John Bolton’s reference was in 2003. At that time Libya’s nuclear program was at the initial level. Understand that he wanted to make a car and he made a tire and said that I quit making tires, you Let me enter the international community, give financial assistance, etc. So, after the 2003 agreement there was no way to return to the nuclear weapons in Libya, L. John Bolton wanted that North Korea should not have any way to return after disarmament. But people understood that they are saying that the situation of Colonel Gaddafi, Kim Jong would be the same as him. . ”
Nuclear weapons surrendered by Libya
Differences in Libya and North Korea
North Korea did not like its comparison to Libya because the Libyan nuclear program was at that very early stage. While according to the Defense and Intelligence Agency estimates, North Korea had only about 60 nuclear weapons in 2017.
Vaijayanti Raghavan explains that no country has yet disarmed as far as the North Korean nuclear program is told.
Trump did not want to let this matter deteriorate. That is why he dismissed Bolton’s statement, but according to one story in New York Times, according to one of his cabinets, he also said that he should avoid speaking non-violence on North Korea.
‘Do not get scared of the USA even if there are no nuclear weapons’
John Bolton could have been misinterpreted, but knowingly, he ignored the story of Gaddafi to the whole world. But Professor Muqtadar Khan thinks that North Korea will not make a mistake in Libya.
He said, “North Korea is not so stupid. I recall that when the US had defeated Iraq in the last few days in the Gulf War, then the Defense Minister of India was asked what was the lesson for you in this? So he said that if you do not have nuclear weapons then do not fight over the US. ”
Muqtadar believes that North Korea knows that if he does not have nuclear weapons, then he may be in the same situation as Iran. Under the burden of restrictions they will be forced to change power.
He says, “If North Korea’s leadership demands advice from me, then I would say that you do not disarm in any aspect, otherwise you will not have any status.”
Then the doubts of the dispute
Professor Khan also says that a part of the American political community is not happy with this agreement because America has not achieved anything more than this.
Vaijayanti Raghavan assumes that there are many such duel between the two countries that can come up again in the near future and disturb the situations.
She says, “Now Trump has said that we will leave military exercises in South Korea. I do not think that he talked to South Korea and talked to them. Now South Korea may find that Trump is withdrawing from the commitment of cooperation with South Korea.
However in the past, there are such instances when countries have successfully disarmed and have also benefited from it.
Muqtadhar Khan says, “Brazil and Argentina, South Africa and Sweden are examples of this.” In the post-Soviet era, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Ukraine. They also had more than one hundred nuclear weapons, but they gave everything and instead They got financial help from the West for several billion dollars, North Korea can also have a great advantage if they manage this conversation well, in a phased manner. Increased further. ”
At present everything seems stable and calm. But when Donald Trump gave a lengthy address in Singapore after visiting Kim, he also told in one line with all the positive sides that the fears of his mind are still not sorted on the promise of Kim Jong.
He said, “I think that he will do these things, I can be wrong, maybe I should stand in front of you in six months and say that I was wrong. I do not know if I will ever accept it. Or no, but I will find some excuse. “