North Korean ruler Kim Jong-un announced the closure of nuclear and missile tests, preparing for two important diplomatic meetings.
Analyst Ankit Pandya points out what will North Korea achieve with this step?
It was natural for this announcement to be made news headlines and to conclude the end of nuclear tests while admitting the move.
But looking at the historic record of this country and the situation of the nuclear-missile program, it seems that we should make changes in expectations.
North Korea’s announcement means?
First of all, talk about the North Korea’s nuclear test stopping on Saturday.
This announcement says that Kim Jong-those are voluntarily pausing nuclear tests. Along with this, North Korea is also ending the Puzyari nuclear test center, witnessing all the tests since 2006.
This is because Kim Jong believes that his country has mastered the design of nuclear weapons.
However, it is difficult to confirm this claim, but this claim is not enough to be considered excessive and to be seen as a sign of suspicion.
Consider India and Pakistan during the year 1998. The two countries conducted six nuclear tests. Now both countries are counted among nuclear power-rich nations, while the two have not done any tests since the six tests.
After eight years of studying the information related to the design of nuclear weapons from the available sources and after six tests, North Korea can feel the same.
Looking at the fifth and sixth test of North Korea, which appeared in the months of September 2016 and September 2017, it has been found that it has touched important standards.
According to North Korea’s official media, a compact nuclier device was used in the 2016 test, which can be used on low, medium, intermediate and intercontinental ballistic missiles.
The firing capabilities of these missiles will be two or three times greater than the atomic bomb dropped by the United States in Nagasaki in the last days of World War II. But enough firepower for North Korea is enough.
The worrying thing is that recent nuclear tests of North Korea show that it has the capability to create very powerful nuclear weapons.
However, independent analysts and many national intelligence organizations have not yet had an opinion on whether North Korea has mastered the making of a thermonuclear bomb according to its claim.
But Seismic data, received on September 3, 2017, states that North Korea has a nuclear weapon with the capability to eliminate a city.
The basic thing is that Kim Jong, his recent visit to China, was like a power demonstration from him.
His visit to China also shows that he has so much strength in North Korea that he can go out of North Korea.
Likewise, the announcement of closure of nuclear tests is a sign of a new flight in their confidence.
Missile Test Bin at Low Cost
In reference to missile tests, Kim has said that he will no longer be testing the Intercontinental Range Missile (ICBM).
On the other hand, on the other hand, this step is very shocking.
Of the total missiles launched by North Korea, only three missiles are those that can attack the United States nuclear attack.
None of these tests are such that it complies with the path that is necessary for nuclear attack.
Indeed, these tests are needed in North Korea so that they can maintain their confidence that they are capable of attacking the United States.
But North Korea can have some more plans.
For instance, North Korea has made itself so rich at the technological level that it can terrorize the United States.
But North Korea’s missile is also limited due to lack of strength launchers.
Currently, North Korea has only six launch vehicles to launch its missiles.
During his speech in 2017, Kim Jong Un told him that his nuclear power was ‘complete’. In such a situation, it is easy to believe that they would like to create missile launchers and would like to enrich the nuclear weapons components and control systems.
How easy it is to break tests
Ban also has a limit on nuclear tests.
The authentication could be increased by issuing this statement from the Pangi-ri Test site. For example, North Korea could destroy the tunnels on this test site. But it issued a statement saying that this site will be terminated.
But until North Korea rely on its missiles, it can break the ban with a small warning.
In the year 1994, North Korea agreed on the Missile Testing ban after the breakdown of the agreement to stop the trial of nuclear weapons with the United States in 1994, but in 2006 it broke once again.
Beyond these restrictions, Kim Jong has announced the success of the original national strategic project in the recent Central Committee meeting, which is being called the Beijing Line.
This concept includes the development of a powerful national nuclear capability and the development of a prosperous economy.
On Saturday, Kim Jong has indicated that after stopping nuclear tests, he will now be working on creating a powerful socialist economy in which people will be working to improve the quality of life.
America is the summit prize
This concession from North Korea has just happened before meetings with America and South Korea.
Anyone will be surprised to know that Kim Jong, who has already left all this when he is preparing to meet the American President.
The answer to this question is simple. Meeting with the US President is a gift in itself. Because Kim’s father and grandfather did not even get the status.
In the end, the question is, what will North Korea do by eliminating its test site and banning nuclear tests? The answer is that all this is nothing compared to what will be achieved by sitting with trump.
In Saturday’s announcement of the KCNA, there is no sign of nuclear free for which the South Korean officials were desperate to praise North Korea.
In contrast, North Korea’s announcement seems to have declared itself as a nuclear prosperous state which is not going to give up these weapons because this weapon is a guarantee of the survival of this country.
However, President Trump has described Kim Jong’s initiative as a major progress and as soon as he understands Kim’s main purpose, the better.
(Ankit Pandya is senior member of American Association of Scientists and Senior Editor in The Diplomat)